Significant Weather Event Be Alert! 5/18/19 j7409 weather. watch
Significant Event Including Widespread Wind Damage and a Few Strong Tornadoes Expected Today across parts of the Southern Plains, Arklatex and southern Ozarks
### Southern Plains/Arklatex/Southern Ozarks
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move eastward into the southern High Plains today as a moist and unstable airmass advects northward into the southern Plains. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing across north-central Texas and southwest Oklahoma during the morning, associated with a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. Model forecasts develop this cluster upscale into an MCS, moving a squall-line eastward across Oklahoma and north Texas during the day. As surface heating takes place ahead of the line, cell intensity within the cluster is expected to gradually increase. Surface dewpoints ahead of the MCS should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F with MLCAPE values reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg range by early afternoon. In addition, a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern Plains. This feature will enhance lift and create strong deep-layer shear profiles favorable for bow echoes within the squall-line. An isolated tornado threat along with potential for wind damage and isolated large hail is forecast during the early afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
As the linear MCS moves into far eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and far northeast Texas, the current thinking is that new convection will develop on the southern end of the MCS. At the same time, the strengthening low-level jet will become coupled with the mid-level jet. In addition, a cluster of discrete cells could also develop ahead of the squall-line across western Arkansas and far northeast Texas with a shear environment favorable for supercells and tornadoes. There is conditionality associated with this scenario. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in southwest Arkansas show MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This combined with looped hodographs and 0-3 km storm relative helicities of 300 to 400 m2/s2 would be favorable for strong tornadoes if a cluster of discrete cells can develop. The more certain scenario would be for widespread wind damage to occur along the leading edge of the linear MCS. The threat is expected to be maximized across western and central Arkansas extending southwestward into far northeast Texas in the 20Z to 00Z time-frame. The severe threat should be less with south south-westward extent into east Texas where wind damage and large hail will be possible. A wind damage threat and potential for tornadoes associated with the squall-line is expected to continue into the evening as far east as the Mississippi River.
South-central and Southwest Kansas/Northwest and North-central Oklahoma
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move into the southern High Plains today. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop in the northeastern Texas Panhandle as a cold front advances southeastward across western Kansas. Surface heating ahead of the front should enable a corridor of moderate instability to develop from western Kansas southeastward into northwest Oklahoma by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected to occur along this corridor during the mid to late afternoon just ahead of a shortwave trough. RAP forecast soundings from Dodge City to northwest of Oklahoma City late this afternoon show MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear of 45 to 55 kt. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Supercells that develop where instability becomes strongest, may have potential to produce hailstones of 2 inches or greater in diameter. A wind damage threat is also expected but cell coverage may remain somewhat isolated across the area.
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