Joe Walsh, the former tea party congressman and conservative talk radio host, announced that he would be running for president, issuing a primary challenge for President Donald Trump. The very first question Joe Walsh was asked as a declared candidate is an obvious one for anyone who follows Trump's approval ratings closely.
Indeed, Trump's approval rating amongst Republicans has remained high throughout his presidency. A recent Monmouth University Poll placed that figure at 84%.
The question of whether Joe Walsh could actually beat Trump in a primary challenge is barely worth considering. To do so, Walsh would not just have to be more popular amongst Republicans than Trump. He would have to be so much more favorable that Republicans are willing to risk the White House on an untested candidate.
A sitting president has never lost a primary challenge, and Trump's strong support from his party makes him unlikely to be an exception. But some presidents have faced serious primary challenges: Ford, Carter, and Bush senior barely survived theirs.
In all three cases, these presidents also had problematic approval ratings. Not within their own party, but amongst the general electorate. Along those lines, Trump's ratings are also low, meaning a serious primary challenge is likely.
There's something else Ford, Carter, and Bush all have in common. They lost the general.
This isn't to say that the tough primary challenges caused the general election loss, or that the low approval ratings caused the primary challenges. All three things tend appear together, but the causal links are up for interpretation. All we really know is that there seems to be a correlation.
So, the question is not whether Joe Walsh will beat Trump in his primary race, or even whether his primary challenge will cause Trump to lose the general election. Before a president loses a general election, a tough primary challenger tends to emerge. The question about Joe Walsh is...
Is he that guy?
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Question Time features video essays about politics, history and culture, with a particular focus on the United States of America. Topics are inspired by events and trends in news and current affairs, and attempt to provide context for a robust discussion in the comments section. All opinions presented in videos are my own, but yours matter, too. Your thoughts are highly valued, even when you don't agree. At the heart of every vibrant democracy are ordinary people, engaged in debate over policy and values.
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